Challenges of demand planning in e-commerce: keep an eye on external factors

Demand planning in e-commerce is complex and is influenced by factors such as weather, seasonal events and the consumer sentiment index. Let's take a closer look at these challenges and compare how Q2 2024 has evolved compared to Q2 2023 to give you insights on how to optimize your planning.

In the dynamic environment of e-commerce, effective demand planning can make the difference between success and failure. Unpredictable external factors such as weather changes, seasonal events and the consumer climate have a significant impact on consumer buying behavior. To overcome these challenges, it is crucial to understand these factors and incorporate them into planning.

Comparison between Q2 2024 and Q2 2023

In May 2023, the average temperature was 13.5 °C, while it was 14.0 °C in May 2024. A temperature of 17.5 °C is forecast for June compared to 16.8 °C in 2023. The rise in temperature indicates that demand for e-commerce generally decreases at higher temperatures, as people spend more time outdoors and shop less online. The amount of rainfall is also important: in May 2023, the amount of precipitation was 67 mm, in May 2024 it will be 55 mm. Less precipitation is also expected for June 2024, which could favor the sale of outdoor products, but could generally have a negative impact on demand.

The European Championships, which begin in June, will have a strong impact on demand for fan merchandise, sportswear and consumer electronics. Experts predict additional sales of 5 to 20% depending on the sector.

The consumer confidence index (CCI) measures consumer confidence in the economy and influences their willingness to buy. According to Statista, the CCI was -26.0 in May 2023 and rose to -24 in May 2024. A CCI of -20.0 is forecast for June 2024, which shows a positive trend in consumer confidence and could lead to an increased willingness to buy. It is the lowest value in 24 months. Inflation, an important factor, is estimated at a moderate 2.7% for 2024, also the lowest value in 24 months.

Conclusion

Overall, the current external market factors offer an additional explanatory factor that can significantly complement demand planning and, if taken into account, significantly improve the accuracy of purchasing and inventory management. For June Q2 2024, the current forecasts show a possible positive support for e-commerce sales for June 2024, especially due to external factors such as the European Championship and the improved purchasing power index.

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